10 ANS DE MACRON : L’HEURE DU BILAN [ARGENT MAGIQUE]

The two presenters humorously compare Macron's 10 years to a 10-season TV series, before the next election.

• Covid in season 3 ('We are at war') • Yellow Vests from season 2 onward

For one presenter, 10 seasons of neoliberalism episode after episode is déjà vu, done everywhere in the world for years.

The other presenter objects that there were plenty of reforms going in all directions, and the discussion shifts to Tony Blair, Hollande, and Berlusconi.

• Macron comes to power in 2017 and launches reforms immediately • He is nicknamed the president of the rich from summer 2017, notably due to abolishing the wealth tax

• Yellow Vests from November 2018, triggered by carbon tax hike then broadened to purchasing power and tax inequality • In 2019, merger with protests against pension points reform • Increased violence in protest suppression

• Covid-19 in 2020 ends mobilizations and buries the points pension • Three lockdowns and the 'whatever it costs' relief • Reelection against Marine Le Pen in 2022

• War in Ukraine in February 2022, energy crisis and inflation up to 6.3% in February 2023 • No absolute majority in June 2022 legislative elections, use of Article 49.3 • Pension reform, death of Nahel Merzouk in July 2023 and riots • Dissolution in summer 2024, the NFP leads without absolute majority • Since 2025: Trump's second term, tariffs, war in Iran and heat waves

Classical liberalism of the late 19th century relied on laissez-faire and the invisible hand of the market, until the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Facing competing ideologies (Keynesianism, socialism, communism, fascism), liberals updated their doctrine: this is neoliberalism, born in the 1930s.

• The market remains central, but the state must legislate to protect competition and populations somewhat • A safety net that should not cost too much • Public spending possible if it favors markets and private enterprises in competition

• Between 1945 and the 1970s-80s, the Keynesian world was highly interventionist, with regulated markets, public enterprises and planning • Neoliberals oppose planning, public procurement and debt • They prefer subsidies and supply-side policy over demand-side policy

• Reforms in effect from 2018, roughly 50 billion in lost annual revenue by the end of the first term • Residence tax: 16 billion less • Corporate income tax from 33.3 to 25%: 11 billion • Production tax: 10 billion

The flat rate single levy taxes capital income at 30% for all, without progressivity: up from 0% before for small savers, down from 45% before for the very rich.

Trickle-down theory posits that enriching the richest benefits the poorest, but the presenters assert there is research consensus that it is invalid.

This fiscal policy is from Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, 40 years old.

For liberals, the only cause of unemployment is labor cost too high, so it must be reduced.

• Unemployment insurance reforms: less benefit, reduced duration or longer contribution • The CICE, created in 2013, was about 20 billion per year in employer contribution cuts, continued by Macron in 2019 • Replacing contributions with taxes gives the state control of Social Security

• Capping severance payouts in 2017 (4 months after 3 years tenure) • 2016 El Khomri labor law: easier to exceed 35 hours and fire, with a right to disconnect

• The flexicurity promise falls short: medium security, far from Denmark • Trade-off: CPF and stronger control of the unemployed, RSA conditioned on activity hours in 2025

About 500,000 contracts signed and less youth unemployment, but according to the presenters it is a subsidized contract, as has existed since 1977.

Hiring aid, contribution cuts and state-funded training: estimated cost of 157 billion euros since 2018, with aid increased during Covid.

Youth unemployment has risen since 2022: when hiring no longer costs zero, firms stop hiring.

Never implemented due to Covid, it would have allowed reducing pensions and spending without an Assembly vote, thus lowering contributions and labor cost.

The 2015 deregulation initially offered very cheap trips, but results in Flixbus, the only remaining firm on the market in 2027: a private monopoly.

Macron favored Uber's implantation to break the taxi monopoly; drivers later mobilized for pay and a VTC exam was established.

• Orpea and People and Baby scandals, linked to privatization and lack of oversight • Nursing home pricing reform in 2017 and ASAP law in 2020 for childcare

• CPF: numerous scams • MaPrimeRénov': scams, reduced program and tougher criteria • Health, education and research: insufficient budget technique, permanent austerity degrading public services

According to OFCE (2022), reforms mainly benefited the richest (wealth tax, flat tax), then upper-middle and middle classes; only the activity bonus aids the weakest, in response to Yellow Vests. The richest 5% gain 1800 € more.

Tax cut, temporary deficit increase, bankruptcy alarms, then public service cuts.

Tax cuts were to be repaid by growth, but after 40 years of neoliberalism, France's GDP has not soared.

• Unemployment fell from 10% to 7.2%, but rises with subsidy cuts • Unemployment reforms accelerate job recovery, mainly through contracts under 6 months • Poverty rate from 13.8% in 2017 to 15.4%

During Covid, Macron did demand-side stimulus, but because all other countries did.

The euro crisis from 2010 was austerity-driven; after Covid, Europe learned its lessons and relaunched via demand.

• Whatever it costs: aid to businesses and households • France Relance (100 billion, 40 from Europe) and France 2030 (54 billion) • Common European debt of 750 billion, 48% loans and 52% grants • Energy price shield in 2022-2023, comparable to other countries

According to the presenters, this does not make Macron Keynesian: Keynes wanted to maintain demand until full employment, and the stimulus is over.

Macron embraced 10 years of neoliberalism, added to 40 years of the same less open policy, but it no longer works.

• Return to demand-side policy • Rethink GDP as the main indicator, as well as consumption, production and decision modes

The High Council for Climate deems the national low-carbon strategy ambitious, but without the means to meet targets.

April 2027 presidential election: Macron will not be reelected, but another neoliberal could arrive; call to subscribe and support Argent Magique and Stup Média, with a goal of 5000 € per month.