
Les prix flambent, la situation explosive expliquée
Is France at risk of running out of fuel? Prices continue to rise, the government has announced new measures.
9 chapters
- Fuel Price Surge and Geopolitical CausesContextThe price of a barrel of Brent crude rose from around $80 in early July to mostly over $100 since September 9, nearly 50% higher than the same period last year.Geopolitical causes• Israeli and American bombings on Iran in February • Iranian retaliation in the region • Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iran, through which nearly 20% of global hydrocarbon trade flows • The United States blocks Iranian ports • Bab-el-Mandeb Strait disrupted by Yemeni Houthi rebels allied with IranPrices in France• Diesel averaging €2.41 per liter this Tuesday • SP98 gasoline at €2.27 and SP95 at €2.17 • Local levels sometimes approaching €3 per liter • About half of diesel consumed in France is imported already refinedConsequencesThese record prices are also explained by disruptions at multiple refineries in the Middle East and Russia due to war, reducing global diesel supply and driving up prices, with direct impacts on French households' spending and growing social anger.
- Fuel Taxes and Government RevenueTwo taxes• VAT, a 20% tax added to the sales price, which increases with fuel price • Excise tax, a fixed amount per liter: 60 cents for diesel and 69 cents for gasoline, which does not vary with priceMechanismIf prices rise and French consumers buy less fuel, the government may gain more through VAT but lose through excise tax, potentially reducing total revenue overall.Government statementThe government claims it has not profited from the price changes and would have even lost €407 million in revenue since the crisis began compared to the same period last year, a claim that remains to be verified.Refiner marginsAccording to Le Monde, based on French administration figures, refiner margins were on average nearly seven times higher during the first 11 days of September than in February last year, fueling debate over possible profiteering by certain companies.
- Supply Risk and Government Aid MeasuresStock statusOn Monday, just over one in six gas stations was out of at least one fuel type, but the government says a nationwide shortage across all fuels is not on the agenda and 3 months of strategic reserves remain.Cause of shortagesThe Ministry of Economy clarifies that 9 out of 10 stations with temporary shortages are among those practicing price caps, which attracts more demand and creates imbalances with uncapped stations.OutlookNo real shortage in the short term, but occasional temporary shortages; the situation appears unlikely to improve as long as geopolitical tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade persist, with no apparent way out of war from Donald Trump.Aid announcedThe high-mileage worker scheme has been renewed and expanded: a one-time €100 payment for October through December for modest-income workers using their cars for commuting, deemed insufficient by several political parties and presidential candidates.
- Macron at UN on Gaza and West BankMacron's statementEmmanuel Macron denounced the situation in Gaza and occupied West Bank at the UN General Assembly, stating that the alleged peace has not reopened humanitarian corridors.Toll since ceasefireSince the ceasefire signed on October 9, 2025, 1,300 people have been killed in the Gaza Strip during Israeli operations according to the Hamas health ministry, whose figures are deemed reliable by the UN.Israeli reactionNetanyahu's office denounced on X the grotesque absurdity of the French president's remarks, recalling the death of an Israeli settler with French nationality killed in the West Bank by a presumed Hamas member.Global tollSince the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, over 1,100 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli soldiers or settlers in the West Bank, and nearly 50 Israelis have been killed in Palestinian attacks or military operations.
- EU Sanctions on Russia and French ReleaseEU decisionThe European Union lifted sanctions against two Russian oligarchs while renewing those targeting 3,000 other individuals and companies linked to Russia, extended for 3 years.Oligarchs involvedAlisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman were removed from the sanctions list; France pushed for Usmanov's removal.Quid pro quoAccording to several diplomats, France came under pressure from Azerbaijan, which holds at least two French nationals; Azerbaijan pardoned Frenchman Martin Ryan, imprisoned since 2023 on espionage charges.Ukrainian reactionUkraine denounced the removal of these two oligarchs, calling the decision shameful and unjustifiable.
- Convictions for 2019 Sri Lanka BombingsFacts recalledOn April 21, 2019, Easter Sunday, 8 suicide bombers detonated themselves in three churches and three luxury hotels in Sri Lanka, killing 279 people including 45 foreigners.Verdict14 people were found guilty of murder, attempted murder and complicity with a terrorist enterprise, a 15th partially guilty; all sentenced to 220 years in prison, 9 others acquitted.AccusationsThe convicted are accused of having aided or harbored the eight suicide bombers.Political twistThe investigation, initially attributed to the Islamic State group, took a political turn: a former intelligence official, General Suresh Sallay, was arrested, suspected of being the true mastermind of the attacks to favor the election of ex-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who denies any involvement.
- Women Filmed Without Consent Using Smart GlassesThe phenomenonMultiple investigations have been opened in Paris following complaints from women filmed on the street without their knowledge using smart glasses, with videos then shared on social media without consent.Method of operationA man approaches women on the street, films them without telling them, puts them in uncomfortable or humiliating situations to provoke a reaction before sharing the videos.Consequences and penaltiesVictims often become targets of ridicule, sexist insults or threats according to the e-Enfance association; suspects face up to 2 years in prison and €45,000 in fines, with some investigations also covering sexual assault.Meta's responseMeta states it has regulated use of its product with an LED that blinks when the device is filming, but this light can be hard to notice or disabled via tricks circulating online; Meta assures that if the LED is hidden, the glasses stop recording.
- Historic Drought of French SoilsAssessmentThe drought of French soils has reached a historic level according to Météo France, with virtually no rain falling in mainland France since early September after a particularly dry summer.Agricultural impactMany crops are suffering, such as corn, soft wheat or potatoes, whose yield is severely affected, raising concerns about rising prices for fruits, vegetables and food products.Scale84% of France is affected by a drought that occurs on average only once every 10 years; territories like Languedoc-Roussillon, Dordogne, Corsica or Béarn have reached unprecedented levels.TrendWith climate change, droughts are becoming more frequent, more severe and earlier according to Météo France.
- BCG Vaccine and Potential Effects Against Alzheimer'sThe discoveryThe BCG vaccine, which protects against tuberculosis, could potentially have beneficial effects against Alzheimer's disease, according to a recent American study conducted among people over 55.Mechanism studiedResearchers focused on the BCG vaccine's ability to stimulate the immune system and found it could act on certain immune defenses linked to the brain.LimitationsIt is still too early to confirm that this vaccine can actually prevent Alzheimer's, as the study involves few patients.ProspectThis discovery remains a new lead being explored and a potential advance from a scientific perspective.





