Game Theory: Why You CAN'T Beat Super Smash Bros Ultimate!

MatPat presents a comedic conspiracy theory about purple and yellow chairs appearing in a Smash Direct, claiming they hint at Goku being added to the game through a series of absurd numerological connections.

Welcomes viewers to Game Theory where theorists use deep lore, math, and no items to analyze games.

Discusses the highly anticipated release of Super Smash Bros Ultimate scheduled for December 7th, noting it as one of the most exciting Switch releases.

MatPat asks viewers to complete a short survey about YouTube viewing habits and Smash character preferences to help with a future episode on the psychology of Smash players.

Explores how many different possible match combinations exist within Smash games, comparing the calculation method to the Marioplex number from a previous Mario Maker episode.

Defines permutations as combinations where order matters, using a number lock analogy to explain the difference between permutations and simple combinations.

• 12 characters × 12 × 12 × 12 (for 4 players) = 20,736 possible character orders • 20,736 character combinations × 9 stages = 186,624 possibilities • Multiplied by 2 for timed versus stock matches = 373,248 total possibilities

The final number of 373,248 possible Versus matches for the original game demonstrates how varied gameplay could be even in the simplest Smash title.

15 items can each be turned on or off, with 6 different appearance frequency settings ranging from very low to very high, or disabled entirely.

• 2 to the 15th power equals 32,768 variations based on item on/off toggles • Multiplied by 5 frequency levels equals 163,840 different match types from items alone

163,840 item variations × 373,248 character/stage/type combinations = approximately 61.15 billion different playable options for standard Versus battles with four characters.

This calculation accounts only for 4-player matches and does not differentiate between human and computer-controlled characters.

• SSB4 featured 58 playable characters with the roster expanded to allow 8 players instead of 4 • 58 to the 8th power yields 128,063,081,718,016 possible character permutations • This is 80 trillion US dollars equivalent and 6 billion times more combinations than Smash 64

At 3 minutes per match, it would take 731 million years to play each character combination once.

• 55 stages on Wii U version, each with an optional Omega form similar to Final Destination • Omega forms double the stage options to 110 possibilities

• Three main match types: time, stock, and coin • 75 items with low, medium, or high frequency settings creates 2 to the 75th power × 3 combinations • Items alone add 113 sextillion different options

128 trillion character options × 113 sextillion item options × 110 stages × 3 game modes = 5 duodecillion total match permutations, equivalent to 130 septillion times the number of cells in the human body.

• Only 19 of 58 characters are used in professional play • 48 of 110 stages are banned in tournaments • Matches restricted to 1v1 stock format with items set to none or disabled

19 characters × 19 × (110-48 stages) × 1 match type × 1 item setting = only 22,382 competitive match variations.

The 22,382 competitive options represent only 0.0000000000000000000000000000000004673% of all possible matches, raising questions about whether competitive players are playing the full game Sakurai designed.

Sakurai has expressed concerns about the growing gap between casual and competitive players, believing competitive play contradicts the original vision of Smash as a game with diverse options.

• The Hammer is considered a ridiculous and unfair item • Meta Knight was completely broken in balance • Bombs appear randomly and cause unfair kills

Pokemon Stadium's constant stage changes are disruptive to serious competitive strategies, raising the question of whether a game filled with randomness can truly be competitive.

MatPat suggests creating separate competitive categories: one limiting gameplay to test pure mastery of control and strategy, and another opening up the game's full elements to test adaptation against both opponents and the game itself.

• Ultimate announced 'Everyone is here!' with 74 playable characters at the time of the video • MatPat adds Waluigi to round the number to 75 characters

Despite 75 characters available, professional play will likely focus on only 5 characters due to balance concerns and competitive viability.

75 characters in a 1v1 match creates 75² = 5,625 character combinations, scaling to over 1 quadrillion possible matchups including all player scenarios.

This represents 50 billion times more variety than the original Smash 64 roster, demonstrating extraordinary franchise growth.

103 announced stages for Ultimate, with each stage featuring an Omega form and a Battlefield form to accommodate different play styles.

• Omega forms provide Final Destination-like layouts • Battlefield forms include platforms for upward smash attacks • 103 stages × 3 forms = 309 total stage options

New Stage Morph feature allows selecting two stages that randomly alternate during matches, creating 95,172 additional possible stage combinations, bringing the total to 95,481 stage options.

Stage hazards can be toggled on and off for certain stages, potentially adding hundreds or thousands more variations beyond the calculated 100,000+ stages.

• 85 items confirmed via Smash Bros website and gameplay footage • 15-20 additional unconfirmed items likely to be included • Estimated total of 100 items in the game

2 to the 100th power × 3 frequency settings = 3.8 nonillion item combinations, an egregiously large number with 9 in the numerical name.

1 quadrillion character combinations × 95,172 stages × 3.802 nonillion item combinations × 3 match modes = approximately 1.087 sedecillion possible matches.

Playing 3 minutes per match would require 6 quattuordecillion years, 434 decillion times the age of the universe, and 689 quadrillion times longer than the longest Spongebob meme ever calculated.

The 1.087 sedecillion possible matches is nearly the number of nucleons in Earth's mass, but unlike Mario Maker, it falls short of particles in the entire universe.

• Earth's age: 4.5 billion years • Ultimate matches would take 1.3 undecillion times Earth's age • Would require 434 decillion times the current age of the universe

The universe could be born, mature, and undergo its heat death millions upon millions of times while still playing through all possible Ultimate matches.

MatPat expresses that unlike the Marioplex episode, they weren't able to create a new named number, but hopes to name a number after Sakurai in the future for his extraordinary work.

Ultimate features Smash Down and Tourney modes alongside all character combinations, handicaps, times, stocks, and other variables not included in the main calculation, suggesting even greater complexity.

Skillshare is presented as both a partner for this episode and a long-term trusted resource used by the Game Theorists team to improve and broaden their skills.

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First 1,000 people using skl.sh/gametheorists2 get two months free, then as low as $10 per month, supporting both the channel and independent educators.

Super Smash Bros Ultimate offers an incomprehensibly vast number of match possibilities that would be impossible to experience in any reasonable timeframe.

The fact that competitive play uses only a fraction of a fraction of a percent of available options demonstrates how much of the game's designed variety is ignored in professional play.

Sakurai's vision of Ultimate as a game where 'Everyone is here!' and players can play however they want stands in stark contrast to the restrictive competitive meta.

MatPat closes with the signature catchphrase 'That's just a Theory, a Game Theory!' and thanks viewers for learning about the mathematical complexity of Super Smash Bros Ultimate.