Game Theory: Are Gamers Killing Video Games?

Gamers complain about lack of innovation in video games, with articles claiming the industry must innovate to survive. Games like Dead Space and Resident Evil abandoned their original genres to chase the success of franchises like Call of Duty.

• Online complaints about repetitive yearly sequels • Demand for something new and different • Gaming magazines and forums full of criticism about stagnation

Gamers claim to want innovation but their purchasing behavior tells a different story. Their lack of self-awareness is killing the industry's willingness to take creative risks.

• Call of Duty shows strong growth curve despite repetition • Battlefield franchise maintains consistent strong sales • Assassin's Creed and Madden both show drastic growth despite minimal changes

• Super Mario Bros - 2D platformer • New Super Mario Bros - 2D platformer • Super Mario World - 2D platformer • Super Mario Bros 3 - 2D platformer

• Super Mario Galaxy - praised for innovation but lower sales • Super Mario Galaxy 2 - fresh approach but poor performance • Super Mario Sunshine - broke from formula but underperformed • Yoshi's Island - hailed as innovative but sold less

Games praised for being new and innovative consistently sold worse than traditional 2D platformers using the same formula as the original game.

When Mario games are ranked by sales from highest to lowest, the top performers are all formulaic 2D entries, while the bottom performers are the ones that broke from the typical Mario formula.

• Metroid Prime - reinvented the franchise • The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - broke franchise boundaries • Resident Evil 4 - revolutionary game design • Animal Crossing, Pikmin, Beyond Good and Evil, Eternal Darkness - cutting-edge new IP

• Super Smash Bros. Melee - dominated sales • Mario Kart - nothing else came close

Despite being perhaps the greatest system for innovation, the GameCube quickly became Nintendo's worst-performing console because the games that sold were the traditional, non-innovative titles.

The data conclusively shows that innovative games do not sell well compared to established franchises, regardless of critical acclaim or how well-regarded they are in gaming history.

• Portal - 8 million copies • Portal 2 - additional millions • BioShock - 4 million copies • BioShock Infinite - 4 million copies • Half-Life 2 - 12 million since 2004

Mario Party 8, a game with minimal innovation, sold 8 million copies, matching Portal's sales. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker sold only 3 million despite perfect scores, while Ocarina of Time sold 7.6 million.

• Okami and No More Heroes - poor sales • Psychonauts and Dreamcast titles - underwhelming performance • Games accused of dumbing down - steady and growing sales

Sequels with established formulas consistently outsell new IP and games that break molds. Final Fantasy 13, despite being criticized as one of the weakest entries, became the fourth best-selling in the franchise, crushing sales of Final Fantasy 3 and 6 combined.

Sequels show increased sales while new IP shows decreased sales. Games that break their molds don't sell, but ones that fall into established formulas do.

Budget spent and creative risk taken are usually inversely proportional. A bigger budget means less creative risk, and the sales numbers prove that is the smart business choice.

Why reinvent the wheel when releasing the same wheel with a new paint job still gets you more sales and higher profits?

This inverse relationship means companies have strong financial incentives to avoid the innovation that gamers claim to want, making the gaming industry's cautious approach economically rational.

Nintendo is willing to take risks and push gaming in directions no one has considered. They understand the balance between innovation and commercial success.

• For every innovative game like Pikmin, there needs to be a proven seller like Brawl to fund it • For every failed experiment like Wii U, there's a handheld success to deflect losses • Questioning fundamental game controls is a huge risk

The Wii with motion controls made more money than could fit into a giant's wallet and completely changed the face of gaming forever, proving that sometimes radical innovation can strike it big.

When Nintendo's innovations don't work, they fail spectacularly. This unpredictable outcome is the price of being willing to experiment while competitors focus on safe, profitable formulas.

The real question is what works and what doesn't in terms of innovation and success.

Part three of the 'What Gamers Want' trilogy will seek to find the answer, though it ends up discovering Flappy Bird instead.

Gamers are urged to try something new, as they just might like it despite their past behavior suggesting otherwise.

The episode was supported by Hulu Plus, which helped bring editor Ronnie on full-time and enable more Game Theory content. The service offers a free trial and features shows like Community, Dragon Ball Z, and Pokemon.