Game Theory: Flappy Bird, PewDiePie, and Pasta Sauce

The secret to understanding what gamers want is revealed through an analysis of food optimization and consumer preferences.

• Howard Moskowitz, a food optimization researcher, discovered that consumers don't know what they want until they taste it • His research on Diet Pepsi revealed data doesn't follow a bell curve; instead, people cluster into distinct preference groups • He found that pasta sauce consumers break into three categories: those who prefer marinara, spicy, or extra chunky

When focus groups were asked about chunky pasta sauce, no one requested it. Yet when given taste tests, many preferred it, proving people can't articulate preferences they haven't experienced.

Games like Minecraft represent 'chunky pasta sauces' of the gaming world—innovative experiences people crave without realizing it until they encounter them.

• Previous episodes established that gamers don't want monochromatic 3D action, tablet controllers, or innovation—yet this contradicts reality • Minecraft, World of Warcraft, the Wii, and Oculus Rift are all innovations that broke the mold and achieved massive success • The Virtual Boy failed while Oculus Rift succeeded, both innovative VR technologies with drastically different outcomes

What is the secret sauce that separates successful innovation from failure? Why do some revolutionary products change the industry while others flop?

Innovation works sometimes, and when it does, it works massively. The challenge is predicting which innovations will succeed.

Games like Minecraft went on to sell tens of billions of copies and completely changed the gaming industry.

Flappy Bird's explosive success generated numerous articles theorizing everything from fake reviews to bot downloads, yet the real explanation was overlooked.

• PewDiePie uploaded his 'Flappy Bird Don't Play This Game' video on January 27, the exact same day when Google Trends show searches for Flappy Bird began to ramp up • With 25 billion video views, PewDiePie is extraordinarily influential in the gaming community • His video exemplifies what gamers truly want: to belong and do things that friends and influencers are doing

Flappy Bird and PewDiePie serve as catalysts that set trends in motion, proving that popularity contests drive gaming adoption more than game quality.

The game itself wasn't revolutionary—it was the social endorsement from influential figures that made it viral.

• Innovators (2.5%): First to adopt, very social, willing to take risks because they can handle losses • Early Adopters (13.5%): Influential trendsetters like Markiplier and Smosh, more selective than innovators • Early Majority: Join once momentum builds from top two categories • Late Majority and Laggards: Adopt when it feels like everyone is talking about it

As an innovator with 25 billion views, PewDiePie can afford risk. When he features a game, early adopters follow, creating momentum that spreads to the masses.

People who never heard of PewDiePie or Markiplier end up playing Flappy Bird because friends heard about it from friends who heard about it from those influencers.

We're trained to trust the majority because we don't want to be left out of conversations. This evolutionary instinct drives adoption more than product quality.

Non-innovative sequels grow in numbers because they've already established significant followings well into the early majority, requiring less energy to be successful.

Next gaming trends can't be predicted because nobody knows what influencers will focus on or what early adopters will choose to run with.

• Nintendo's anti-YouTube copyright policies are killing their own momentum by stifling the voices of influential gamers • YouTube gamers are afraid to talk about Nintendo games for fear of copyright strikes, cutting off the critical 15% of trendsetters • This forces influencers to promote competing games like Goat Simulator instead

PlayStation 4's built-in online sharing ability is crushing Xbox One and Wii U sales, partly because the absence of restrictive policies allows influencers to freely create content.

The Virtual Boy failed not because the technology was bad, but because there weren't enough early adopters saying it was cool or setting the trend, despite its neck pain and eye strain issues.

Wii U has been slow to grow due to insufficient momentum to push it over the early majority hill and create the buzz needed to become a smash hit.

The absence of buzz is directly related to Nintendo's anti-YouTube copyright policies that prevent influencers from freely promoting their products.

If influential YouTubers like PewDiePie had endorsed the Virtual Boy's immersive technology, the sales story would be dramatically different.

All patterns throughout the analysis connect to Nintendo's anti-YouTube policies that cut off the critical 15% of trend-setting influencers from the community.

• Video game website traffic is trending downward as audiences move to YouTube for news and entertainment • Nintendo's copyright policies make YouTube gamers afraid to discuss their games, stifling the trend-setting voices • This restriction prevents the diffusion of innovations cycle from completing

Without influencer endorsement, even innovative hardware like Wii U can't gain traction. PlayStation 4's share-friendly approach enables organic influencer adoption.

What gamers want is social validation through influential voices. Success requires both innovation and the freedom for trendsetters to authentically discuss and endorse products.