Iran-Israël-USA : La longue guerre (2/2) | ARTE

After defeating Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War, President George H.W. Bush seeks to build a new Middle East and secure the Persian Gulf for American interests. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the United States becomes the world's only superpower.

• Bush inaugurates a peace conference in Madrid to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and stabilize the Middle East • The conference establishes bilateral discussions between Israel and Arab delegations, and multilateral discussions to deepen Israeli-Arab relations • Iran is notably absent from the conference, as the United States excludes it due to lingering trauma from the 1979 hostage crisis

Iran's new leaders, Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei and pragmatist President Rafsanjani, had supported the United States against Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War, hoping for recognition and integration into the regional system.

Believing America only respects those who can create problems, Iran organizes its own conference supporting Palestine and begins building ties with Palestinian Islamist movements Hamas and Islamic Jihad, laying the foundation for what becomes known as the Axis of Resistance.

In February 1992, Israeli intelligence tracks Hezbollah Secretary General Abbas Mousawi traveling to a ceremony in southern Lebanon. After determining they have high-level intelligence, Israeli military leadership decides to kill him rather than kidnap him.

On February 16, an Israeli helicopter fires on Mousawi's Mercedes, killing him, his wife, and their son. While a tactical intelligence success, Israeli officials later acknowledge the decision lacked strategic foresight regarding potential consequences.

One month later, on March 17, 1992, a car bomb explodes at Israel's embassy in Argentina, killing 28 and wounding 250. While Islamic Jihad claims responsibility, many in Israel view it as direct retaliation by Hezbollah and Tehran for Mousawi's killing.

• The operation initiated a new phase in Israeli relations with Hezbollah and Iran • Israeli officials express doubts about whether the tactical gain justified the escalating costs in blood • The assassination accelerates rather than prevents the development of Iran's response mechanisms

By the early 1990s, Israeli intelligence discovers Iran's intention to develop nuclear weapons. This existential threat prompts Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin to undertake a strategic revolution: achieve peace with Palestinians to free Israeli resources for confronting Iran.

In September 1993, after secret negotiations, Rabin accepts the Oslo Accords and shakes hands with PLO leader Yasser Arafat at the White House. This marks the first genuine peace process between Israelis and Palestinians since Israel's creation.

• Within weeks, Hamas bombs a bus near an Israeli settlement, and an Israeli settler commits a massacre in Hebron • Extremists on both sides attempt to derail the peace process through escalating violence • Iran sees the Oslo process as a strategic threat and intensifies support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad

Iran believes the Oslo Accords are a maneuver to break Palestinian dreams and cement an American-Israeli order that marginalizes Iran. The Supreme Leader decides to intensify support for Palestinian Islamist movements to sabotage the peace process.

On September 11, 2001, Al-Qaeda carries out nearly 3,000 deaths in the most deadly and spectacular terrorist attack in history. The United States discovers that Sunni radicalism embodied by Osama bin Laden, not Shia Islamism, represents the immediate threat.

• President George W. Bush, influenced by neoconservatives including Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, adopts a doctrine of global intervention • The administration redefines terrorism not as an ideology but as a war against those who support terrorism • The goal becomes changing regimes unfavorable to the United States and replacing them with friendly governments

Colin Powell requests Iran's assistance against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Iran agrees because it shares borders with Afghanistan and opposes the anti-Shia Taliban. Mohammed Zarif, Iran's delegate, successfully brokers compromises at the Bonn Conference on Afghanistan's future.

Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld block any further engagement with Iran. In January 2002, Bush declares Iran part of an 'Axis of Evil,' permanently closing the door to normalization and signaling the administration's commitment to regime change.

On May 1, 2003, President Bush declares victory in Iraq after overthrowing Saddam Hussein. The invasion follows the logic of regime change outlined by neoconservatives to reshape the Middle East by destabilizing the region.

Iranians observe the American invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq using false intelligence about weapons of mass destruction. They conclude the United States intends to destabilize or invade Iran next, viewing American actions as proof of hostile intent.

Three days after Iraq's fall, Iran sends a comprehensive proposal through the Swiss ambassador offering to discuss Hamas and Hezbollah, Hezbollah's disarmament, and weapons of mass destruction in exchange for sanctions relief and nuclear technology.

• State Department officials consider the Swiss ambassador too optimistic and remain skeptical of the offer • The Bush administration, convinced of its military superiority after recent victories, believes it has no need to negotiate • Iranian leaders conclude that America remains committed to regime change, prompting them to accelerate uranium enrichment and pursue nuclear weapons

In 2009, President Barack Obama, opposed to the Iraq War and committed to multilateralism, prioritizes negotiations with Iran. He addresses Iran directly in Farsi, making diplomatic overtures unprecedented in the two countries' relations.

• Obama believes diplomacy combined with multilateral pressure can prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons • He repeatedly states 'all options are on the table,' signaling willingness to use military force if diplomacy fails • The administration pursues a multidimensional strategy combining diplomacy, sanctions, and military threat

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's conservative prime minister and commando veteran, believes Obama underestimates Middle Eastern complexities. Netanyahu asserts Israel's right to act independently against Iranian nuclear facilities without American approval.

• Israeli security officials argue military strikes cannot eliminate the threat completely and would destabilize Obama's coalition • Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak lack cabinet consensus for military action, preventing them from acting • Obama secretly initiates direct negotiations with Iran in late 2012 to reach agreement before Netanyahu can build support for military strikes

On July 14, 2015, the nuclear agreement is signed with Iran represented by Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif. Iran limits uranium enrichment to civilian purposes and renounces nuclear weapons in exchange for progressive sanctions relief.

• Most Iranians celebrate the agreement as enabling their country to finally enter globalization • Netanyahu views the deal as a disaster, seeing Iran now strengthened and legitimized as a regional power with Israel more isolated than ever

The newfound dynamic between Iran and the United States proves to be only a brief interlude. President Donald Trump announces American withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, declaring Iran the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism.

• Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, war has never erupted between Washington and Tehran • However, dialogue has never prevailed either, with both enemies failing to overcome historical differences • For over 40 years, a logic of confrontation, disdain for otherness, and exhortation to hatred has dominated, preventing logics of openness and peace