Iran : Trois scénarios pour comprendre | Décryptage | ARTE

Iran has been under theocratic rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The regime was established by Ayatollah Khomeini and has been in place for nearly 50 years.

• The Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority over all state affairs and religious matters • The Supreme Leader can dismiss the president, appoint the head of justice, and command the military and Revolutionary Guards • The Supreme Leader presides over the national security council and national media

While the Supreme Leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts, which is elected by the people, the system lacks genuine democracy because all candidates are pre-screened by the Guardian Council, which is not democratic.

• Half of the Guardian Council members are religious clerics directly appointed by the Supreme Leader • The other six members are appointed by the head of justice, who is himself appointed by the Supreme Leader • This ensures the regime maintains control over all elections

The Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran) are an elite force and one of the main pillars of the Iranian system, tasked with defending the Islamic Republic and its ideology. They comprise between 150,000 and 200,000 personnel.

• The Revolutionary Guards maintain separate land, naval, and air forces distinct from the regular Iranian military • They operate their own secret services • They control Iran's nuclear program • They manage roughly half of the country's economy

The Revolutionary Guards control energy, ports, air transport, and financial and banking sectors, making them a state within the state.

Beyond military functions, the Revolutionary Guards are responsible for terrorizing the population and brutally suppressing protests and manifestations.

The first scenario envisions no significant change, where the regime remains in place, possibly with different faces but fundamentally unchanged structures and operations.

• Although the US and Israel aimed to eliminate Iranian leadership, they may not completely succeed • The Revolutionary Guards remain a powerful institutional force capable of holding power • The regime has been in place for nearly 50 years and has shown resilience • The regime can maintain control through force or negotiation deals with external powers

The regime could evolve into a military dictatorship without the religious component, remaining repressive but potentially allowing certain surface freedoms like removing mandatory headscarves, while maintaining the same level of suppression.

Experts suggest this remains plausible. The regime depends on having sufficient remaining missiles and drones. Without an organized armed opposition, the regime can hold power, but would likely become even more brutal and repressive than before.

Iran has a very young population with 6 out of 10 Iranians under 35 years old. This youth is willing to protest despite the risks and has demonstrated resistance to the regime.

• Green Revolution (June 2009): Millions protested alleged election fraud, resulting in at least 150 deaths and thousands tortured or raped • 2010s protests: Multiple episodes against rising cost of living and corruption • Mahsa Amini movement (September 2022): Protests against mandatory veiling, with some women now appearing without headscarves • Bazar uprising (December-January): Protests against high prices, killed over 30,000 according to NGOs

Currently, no organized opposition exists because the regime has imprisoned, tortured, and killed potential resistance leaders. However, a recent initiative called the Republican Front emerged in early March, involving approximately 35 people from various factions, including imprisoned activists, coordinating with the diaspora.

• Over 4 million Iranians live abroad, primarily in the US and Europe, forming an important diaspora • Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, has emerged as a symbolic figure • Republicans argue that leadership must emerge from free elections rather than being predetermined before voting

If the regime collapses without an internal successor and no organized opposition emerges to govern, Iran could descend into chaos with competing factions attempting to seize power by force.

• Iran comprises 92 million people, with Persians constituting 61% of the population • Significant minorities include Azeris and Kurds in the north, Lors and Arabs in the west, and Baloch near the Pakistan border • Multiple languages are spoken despite Persian being the official language • Separatist movements could strengthen in these regions

When central state authority weakens with foreign interference, as seen in Iraq and Syria, tensions and destabilization occur. Remaining Revolutionary Guard factions could wage war against anti-regime forces, and terrorist groups could exploit porous borders.

Experts express doubt about this scenario because the population maintains strong cohesion despite ethnic differences, sharing a common enemy: the Islamic Republic. Ethnic minorities have suffered together for decades and want to overthrow the regime together, not fight each other.

The moment is uncertain, with recent manifestations showing Iranians split between regime opponents celebrating and regime supporters mourning and holding processions.

• Status quo maintenance or opposition emergence through elections remain most plausible • Chaos scenario is less certain despite real risks • Multiple unforeseen scenarios could emerge depending on external actors

The outcomes heavily depend on the actions and decisions of the United States and Israel, both major actors in the current conflict affecting Iran's future.

Primary information sources from Iran are distributed through official regime channels, making independent verification difficult. The situation remains unpredictable and could bring surprising developments.