Nucléaire iranien : la course contre-la-montre | Décryptage | ARTE

The Iranian nuclear program began in the 1950s under the US Atoms for Peace program with Western support, taking its contemporary form after the 1973 oil shock when the program became very advanced.

By December 1975, the CIA assessed that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons systems by 1985, raising questions about whether the program was truly civilian or nuclear in nature.

The program went dormant following the Iranian revolution but resurfaced and emerged from secrecy in August 2002 when an opposition group revealed the existence of secret nuclear sites, particularly at Natanz and Arak.

Iran's secret advanced nuclear program became a major international concern, particularly due to Iran's official policy to eradicate Israel and the troubling prospect of access to the most lethal weapons in human history.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's arrival to power in 2005 marked a turning point as Tehran accelerated its nuclear program and adopted provocative rhetoric while refusing IAEA cooperation.

• The UN Security Council imposed severe sanctions with unprecedented support from Russia and China • Both nations opposed escalation that could lead to military confrontation • These countries feared the nuclear standoff could destabilize their own interests

Despite concerted pressure and multiple negotiation cycles, talks stalled for years while Iran's program continued progressing and mistrust between Tehran and major powers reached peaks.

The situation seemed blocked with the specter of military intervention beginning to be discussed.

The deadlock was broken by a major political change in Iran with the election of moderate president Hassan Rouhani in June 2013, who carried a promise of openness and diplomatic engagement.

This new era featured strong gestures including a historic handshake between Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif and US Secretary of State John Kerry, signaling the opening of diplomatic channels.

After years of sanctions escalation against centrifuges, both Iran and the US lacked room for further escalation without crossing each other's red lines or risking military confrontation. Following months of intensive negotiations in Vienna and elsewhere, a historic agreement was reached on July 14, 2015.

• Official name: JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) • Objective: drastically limit Iran's nuclear program, particularly uranium enrichment • Strengthen IAEA inspections • Lift international nuclear-related sanctions in exchange • Multilateral consensus among major powers on shared objectives

On May 8, 2018, Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, primarily for domestic political reasons as the deal was a symbol of Barack Obama's foreign policy.

The decision aimed to obtain a better deal beyond nuclear questions but failed to achieve its objective of negotiating a 'Trump deal' superior to the 'Obama deal'. Instead, the US reimposed crushing sanctions under a maximum pressure policy.

• Deprived of promised economic benefits, Tehran progressively freed itself from its commitments • Uranium enrichment exceeded the authorized 3.67% threshold, rising to 4.5%, then 20%, finally reaching 60% • 60% enrichment is dangerously close to the 90% needed for nuclear weapons

The accord became an empty shell as neither Iran nor the West respected their obligations, leaving only a legal framework under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, itself expiring in October 2025.

Tehran shattered uranium stockpile storage ceilings, with total reserves exceeding the agreement limits by dozens of times according to latest IAEA reports.

Attempts to revive the agreement occurred under the Biden administration, particularly in Vienna in 2021 and 2022, but the Iranian nuclear program had advanced too far with irreversible progress.

Even full implementation of the original agreement would not create sufficient distance between Iran's civilian nuclear program and its weapons potential. Experts suggest finding new means to resolve the problem rather than reviving the JCPOA.

• Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts including talks between Iranian and American delegations in Oman and Italy • Trust remains unrestored • Constant Israeli opposition and volatile regional and international context persist • Dialogue appears deadlocked, leaving Iran's nuclear future more uncertain than ever